This report is based on the theory of socio-cultural systems (SCS) developed by the author. As a matter of fact, it is one of its possible, numerous applications. First of all - several words about the theory itself as far as it is still a relatively new thing for Western colleagues.
We work on the SCS theory approximately since 1984. Its developing moves quite slowly. Between 1984-97 we finished no single book, though wrote and keep on our PC several thousands of pages on Russian, Western, Chinese and Black African SCS-s. These texts are mainly just preliminary materials. Many times we’ve tried to complete the general theory as well as more specific texts on various SCS-s, but until very recently - without much success.
Our current problem with the SCS theory is that its abstract description would be unconvincing and looking more like usual scientific speculation (that is not right). It’s necessary to compile a specific analysis of the existing SCS-s, but such analysis of one distinct SCS is highly difficult to be made: all the socio-cultural systems are closely connected, and the correct understanding of each one is only possible in case of taking into account all their interrelations. So, we have to bring out descriptions of all the SCS-s, plus the theory in general at the same time, that is extremely complicated task: each SCS is a special kind of reality, with its own logic and rules, and it’s simply impossible to describe all the existing and existed SCS-s in an observable future. Such work would require a lot of time and in general seems unlikely to be done by two people. Not only the scale of the task itself is the point, but one surely cannot correctly depict all the SCS-s in principle. In fact, being the people of the Russian SCS, we can examine and accurately describe only it. Muslim, Chinese, Black African SCS-s and others still remain not entirely understandable; to characterise them in all details we’d have to explain many nuances of their past and present - but to do so we have to be the people of these SCS-s. It doesn’t mean one cannot understand another SCS at all: the point is detailed examination of the SCS's evolution only - at least, so we think at the moment.
The SCS theory has numerous applications in the field of geopolitics and analysis of the space assimilation processes. In this report we'll consider only some aspects, and more specifically - socio-cultural foundations of East-European and Russian geopolitics. More systematically these were presented in our publications [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7].
1. Socio-cultural processes of the space assimilation do have their own logic that unfolds for centuries. Geopolitical processes are just the individual manifestations of these fundamental socio-cultural phenomena. The geopolitical level does usually attract most attention and provoke the most sharp reaction that often leads to its incorrect interpretation. The SCS theory allows for a more accurate description of the space assimilation processes. Geopolitics, as from the positions of the theory, become just one of its particular applications.
We won't repeat here all ideas and principles of the SCS theory - just refer to the respective appendixes to this report:
APPENDIX 1. THE TERMINOLOGY AND CONCEPTS USED: DEFINITIONS
APPENDIX 2. TYPES OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL FORMATIONS; SOCIO-CULTURAL TYPE'S INDICATIONS / QUALITIES
APPENDIX 3. PERIODS OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS' EVOLUTION
APPENDIX 4. PERIODS AND SUBPERIODS OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS' EVOLUTION
The above presents the general concept of the SCS theory as well as principal facts of the socio-cultural evolution and dynamics.
2. We've performed comparative analysis of the European and Asia Minor external buffer zones' evolution. The result of the analysis - atlas of the computer generated space-time models (kartoids) that reflects the logic of this space evolution. Geopolitical problems of the region and its conflicts appear as particular consequences of the general evolution. Suggested system of the computer generated space-time models creates a principally new foundation for further geopolitical processes' forecasting / prognosis.
The atlas serves as a foundation for forecasting geopolitical processes in the entire European external buffer zone. It also reflects and correctly explains the processes in the Balkans, the essence and state of the current crisis there. We insist that these processes don't possess chaotic geopolitical character, but are consequences of the regular evolution of the region.
Some results of such analysis are presented in the papers of my colleague - Tatiana Nikolaenko.
Here is just the periodization for all the European external buffer zone's socio-cultural regions and Asia Minor.